FAQ
Questions, answered plainly.
Epoch SRA is an Excel add-in that runs calibrated Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis locally; schedule data never leaves the machine. Everything below describes shipped behavior.
What is schedule risk analysis?
Schedule risk analysis (SRA) is the practice of treating a project schedule as uncertain and computing the range of finish dates it could actually produce, usually with Monte Carlo simulation. Instead of one deterministic finish date, SRA gives probability-tagged dates such as P50 and P80, so commitments can be made at a known confidence level.
What is a P80 date?
A P80 date is the date that 80% of simulated project outcomes finish on or before, leaving a 20% chance of finishing later. Epoch SRA treats P80 as the commitment level: its P80 is field-calibrated against replayed historical program actuals, while P50 is the median and deliberately styled as a reference, not a commitment.
What is merge bias?
Merge bias is the effect where a milestone fed by several parallel paths tends to finish later than any single path predicts, because the milestone must wait for the slowest path in each simulated outcome. It is a structural property of networks that deterministic schedules systematically understate, and one of the main reasons Monte Carlo dates are later than CPM dates.
How is Epoch SRA different from Full Monte?
Both tools run Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. Epoch SRA runs as a task-pane add-in inside Excel, imports MS Project XML with the file's stored dates as the baseline, and prices risks from per-category impact priors that were field-calibrated against replayed historical space-program actuals, rather than asking the user to hand-estimate a distribution for every task. It also keeps a living loop: occurred events are logged as schedule mutations, believed versus actual magnitudes are recorded, and every run is seeded and reproducible.
Does my schedule data leave my machine?
No. All computation runs inside Excel on your machine; there is no server, no account, no telemetry, and no upload. Even license keys are verified locally against an embedded public key, so the add-in makes no licensing network calls at all.
Does Epoch SRA import Microsoft Project files?
Yes. Export your plan from MS Project as XML (File > Save As > type: XML) and import it in the pane; the file is read locally and never modified. The import reproduces the file's stored dates as the baseline, translates finish-to-start zero-lag links, re-anchors summary links to leaf tasks, and is refreshable: re-importing keeps task ids stable by the file's own UIDs so risk mappings survive.
What does Epoch SRA cost?
Three plans, per named user, ex-VAT: monthly at €119 per seat per month, annual at €990 per seat per year, and perpetual at €1,300 per seat plus €350 per year maintenance (€1,650 the first year, billed together). Every plan starts with a free 7-day trial in the add-in, and license keys are delivered by email within 24 hours of purchase.
How does the 7-day trial work?
The trial is full-featured and starts on your first Compute — no signup, no card, and no network connection. After 7 days Compute is disabled but your workbooks, imports, and previously computed results stay fully accessible; entering a license key restores full function immediately.